Marketmind: Fitch puts US on watch; will it matter in Washington?

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali Desai.

The U.S. debt ceiling saga continues to hang over global markets, with the White House and Republicans both citing progress in the latest round of talks but no breakthrough yet.

Ratings agency Fitch opted not to wait, placing the country’s “AAA” rating on watch for a possible downgrade – the first major agency to do so. That could raise the stakes in protracted negotiations as the June 1 “X-date” looms – or policymakers in Washington might simply choose to ignore it.

The ratings watch has given a further boost to U.S Treasury yields and the greenback, with the notching new trend highs while Japan’s yen hit its lowest since Nov. 30 and the euro and sterling are sitting on major chart support.

Two-year Treasury yields have also extended to highs not seen since mid-March, while the yield on Treasury bills maturing in early June climbed further above 7%.

Stock markets across Asia are in the red, apart from Japan’s effervescent , although S&P E-mini and Nasdaq futures have bounced after a strong revenue forecast from Nvidia (NASDAQ:) Corp.

Europe’s data calendar is fairly light, with German final Q2 GDP the main release. However, there are plenty of central bank speakers, with comments from Bundesbank head Joachim Nagel and ECB chief economist Philip Lane likely to draw the most interest.

Bank of England monetary policy committee member Jonathan Haskell’s speech in Washington will also be watched after UK price data again surpassed expectations on Wednesday. That left Governor Andrew Bailey fretting about “sticky and stubborn” inflation while markets priced in further policy tightening.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in June also continued to creep up, even after the May 2-3 meeting minutes showed little consensus on the need for further increases.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

German final Q1 GDP and June GfK consumer sentiment

Bundesbank chief Nagel, ECB’s Lane and de Guindos, and BoE’s Haskell speak

U.S. weekly jobless claims and second estimate of Q1 GDP

Earnings: Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:) and Gap