Quiver Quantitative – Tesla (NASDAQ:) much-anticipated Cybertruck has been making headlines, not just for its innovative design but also for its delayed arrival and steep price tag. Analysts are now expressing concerns that the Cybertruck’s impact on Tesla’s financials may be limited in the short term. Wedbush, in a recent note, highlighted that the Cybertruck’s contribution to Tesla’s financials in FY24 might be minimal. Bernstein analysts are even more cautious, forecasting only 250 Cybertruck deliveries this year and 75,000 next year, numbers they deem “ambitious.”
The challenges for Tesla are multifaceted. The company has repeatedly cautioned that significant hurdles lie ahead in ramping up Cybertruck production and achieving positive cash flow, likely not before mid-2025. This prolonged timeline raises concerns about Tesla’s profitability in the near term. Bernstein analysts point out a broader issue with Tesla’s product lineup, noting its age and limited market coverage, with no new mass-market offerings expected until late 2025.
Amid these challenges, Tesla’s stock has experienced volatility. On Friday, Tesla’s shares were poised to shed about $15 billion in market value, with the stock trading at approximately 65 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, based on LSEG data. Despite nearly doubling this year, this is a recovery from a significant drop of over 65% in 2022. The Cybertruck, arriving two years behind schedule, enters an increasingly competitive pickup truck market, contending against Ford’s (NYSE:) F150 Lightning, Rivian Automotive ‘s (NASDAQ:) R1T, and General Motors’ (NYSE:) Hummer EV.
Analysts like RBC Capital Markets’ (RY) Tom Narayan view the Cybertruck more as a ‘halo’ product. It serves to elevate Tesla’s brand image and attract consumers to its more mainstream offerings, the Model 3 and Model Y. This strategy aligns with Tesla’s long-term brand positioning but poses questions about its immediate financial impact and market share in the evolving electric vehicle sector.
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